Donald Trump, new Saudi crown prince share hardline views on Iran but risks abound...
WASHINGTON: Saudi Arabia's new crown prince and likely next king shares US President Donald Trump's hawkish view of Iran, but a more confrontational approach toward Tehran carries a risk of escalation in an unstable region, current and former US officials said.
Iran will almost certainly respond to a more aggressive posture by the United States and its chief Sunni Arab ally in battlefields where Riyadh and Tehran are engaged in a regional tussle for influence.
Iran will almost certainly respond to a more aggressive posture by the United States and its chief Sunni Arab ally in battlefields where Riyadh and Tehran are engaged in a regional tussle for influence.
Saudi King Salman made his son Mohammed bin Salman next in line to the throne on Wednesday, handing the 31-year-old sweeping powers, in a succession shake-up.
Prince Mohammed, widely referred to as "MbS," has ruled out any dialogue with arch rival Iran and pledged to protect his conservative kingdom from what he called Tehran's efforts to dominate the Muslim world.
In the first meeting between Trump and MbS at the White House in March, the two leaders noted the importance of "confronting Iran's destabilizing regional activities."
But that could have unintended consequences, said some current and former US administration officials.
CLOSE RELATIONSHIP
MbS was the driving force behind the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen against Iran-allied Houthi rebels, launched in March 2015. He also appears to have orchestrated this month's breach with neighbor Qatar, which was accused by Riyadh and three other Arab states of cozying up to Iran, funding terrorism or fomenting regional instability. Qatar denies the allegations.
"There's a danger that his foreign policy instincts, that do tend to be aggressive, especially toward Iran, but also toward Sunni extremism, might end up distracting from what he wants to get done economically," said a former Obama administration official, referring to "Vision 2030," MbS's signature economic and social reform agenda.
Malley, who has met MbS, said his attitude toward Iran "stems from his strongly felt conviction that for too long the kingdom has been a punching bag, a passive witness to Iranian action, true or assumed, in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia's own eastern province."
"His view is that Saudi Arabia absorbed those blows and now there's no reason to absorb them anymore," Malley said.
MbS's "desire to confront or even defeat Iran has appeal in the White House, where the crown prince has done an admirable job forging a relationship with the Kushners, who are of his generation," said the US official.
Kushner and his wife, Ivanka Trump, had dinner with MbS when the US president visited Riyadh last month, the first stop on Trump's maiden international visit.
Another senior administration official told Reuters that while Washington did not have advance warning of MbS's promotion, it could see it coming. "This is why the president has tried to foster good relations with him," the official said.
Saudi Arabia's King Salman made his son next in line to the throne on Wednesday, handing the 31-year-old sweeping powers as the kingdom seeks a radical overhaul of its oil-dependent economy and faces mounting tensions with regional rival Iran.
Although Mohammed bin Salman's promotion to crown prince had long been expected among those who follow the royal family closely, the timing was a surprise and puts the kingdom's future in relatively untested hands.
Mohammed bin Salman replaces his cousin, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, a veteran security chief who led the Saudi campaign against Islamic State and al Qaeda, at a time when Riyadh faces tensions with Qatar and Iran and is locked into a war in Yemen.
His appointment may make Saudi policy more hawkish against arch-rival Iran and other Gulf rivals such as Qatar, increasing volatility in an already unstable region, analysts said.
"Under his watch, Saudi Arabia has developed aggressive foreign policies (Yemen, Qatar) and he has not been shy about making strong statements against Iran," said Olivier Jakob at Switzerland-based oil consultancy Petromatrix.
"It is not really a question of if, but rather of when, a new escalation with Iran starts."
U.S. President Donald Trump, who last month made Saudi Arabia his first foreign stop since his election, telephoned Mohammed bin Salman to congratulate him on his promotion.
"The two leaders discussed the priority of cutting off all support for terrorists and extremists, as well as how to resolve the ongoing dispute with Qatar," the White House said in a statement, adding they also discussed efforts to achieve a lasting peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani congratulated Prince Mohammed, in a conciliatory gesture to Riyadh after it joined other Arab states in imposing sanctions on Qatar over its alleged support for terrorism.
"His Highness (Sheikh Tamim) wished him success ... for the good of the kingdom under the wise leadership of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques," Sheikh Tamim said in a message to Prince Mohammed, Qatar state news agency QNA reported.
British Prime Minister Theresa May also welcomed Prince Mohammed's appointment.
Iran, Saudi Arabia's main rival for regional influence, called Prince Mohammed's appointment a "soft coup".
Its leadership was critical of comments he made last month that the "battle" should be taken into Iran, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei labelling Saudi leaders as "idiots".
Iran, which is predominantly Shi'ite Muslim, and Saudi Arabia, which is mostly Sunni, compete for power and influence across the region. The two countries support opposite sides in the conflicts in Syria and Yemen.
Analysts said the prince's rapid rise has created friction within the ruling family, however, and made Saudi policy less predictable than in recent decades.
Favourite son
The reshuffle sparked speculation on Twitter about a possible future abdication by the octogenarian King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud in favour of his son, whose youth and dynamism have appealed to younger Saudis who make up the majority in society and are often eager for change.
After decades in which the same small group of princes handled Saudi affairs on the world stage, Prince Mohammed has led diplomacy with global powers, reportedly charming both Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
He was appointed crown prince and deputy prime minister by royal decree, but he retains the defence portfolio and still controls oil and economic policies.
Mohammed bin Nayef, Salman's nephew and a counter-terrorism chief, who has been admired in Washington for crushing an al Qaeda bombing campaign in 2003-2006, was relieved of his posts, the decree said.
The decision by King Salman to promote his son and consolidate his power was endorsed by 31 of 34 members of the Allegiance Council, made up of senior members of the ruling Al Saud family, the decree said.
In a ceremony at a al-Safa palace in the Muslim holy city of Mecca late on Wednesday night, Saudi state television showed royal family members, clerics and officials queue to shake hands with the young prince or kiss his shoulder.
"We must hand in hand ... behind our leadership which we pray to God for it to be a wise one," Saudi Arabia's Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdulaziz Al al-Sheikh said, opening the pledging ceremony. "By God's book (the Koran) and the laws of His Messenger, I pledge allegiance."
Intent on dispelling speculation of internal divisions in the ruling dynasty, Saudi television repeatedly aired footage of Mohammed bin Nayef pledging allegiance to Mohammed bin Salman, who knelt and kissed his older cousin's hand, saying, "We will not give up taking your guidance and advice."
No power struggle
Analysts said the change reduces uncertainty over succession and is expected to empower Mohammed bin Salman to move faster with his plan to reduce the kingdom's dependence on oil, which includes the partial privatisation of state oil company Aramco.
"The change is a huge boost to the economic reform programme ... Prince Mohammed bin Salman is its architect," said John Sfakianakis, director of the Gulf Research Centre.
Bernard Haykel, professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton, said the king's decision was aimed at avoiding a power struggle between his son and Mohammed bin Nayef.
"It's clearly a transition that has happened smoothly and bloodlessly. Now it's clear, it's straightforward. That kind of clarity lowers the risk. There's no question as to who's going to be in charge."
Saudi Arabia's stock market surged after the announcement, closing more than 5 percent up on the day.
Arab leaders, including Oman’s Sultan Qaboos, Jordan’s King Abdullah and Egypt's Abdel Fattah al-Sisi as well as Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan congratulated Prince Mohammed on his appointment, state media said.
The royal decree did not nominate a new deputy crown prince, a post relatively new in Saudi Arabia, where kings have traditionally chosen their own successors.
In an apparent attempt to appease the family, the decree had a clause that made clear that Mohammed bin Salman will not be allowed to appoint one of his own sons as his successor.
It also appointed young princes from other branches of the family to government roles, seemingly to reassure them that they will remain part of the ruling structure.
As deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman has been responsible for running Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen, dictating an energy policy with global implications and spearheading plans for the kingdom to build an economic future after oil.
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